Sunday, February 26, 2017

How much faster will the 2017 F1 cars be?


The upcoming Formula 1 season will feature more "aggressive" cars that are expected to be several seconds, per lap, faster than it's predecessors. As is widely known, the new cars are 200 mm wider, have considerably more aerodynamic downforce and will use 25% wider tyres.

The drag of the cars will certainly increase significantly, majorly due to the wider tyres, and make them slower through the straights, however, that will be counterbalanced by factors like: more braking capability, higher speed exiting corners and slightly more power from the Power Units. From the outside_ that is, without having access to the concerning specific data_ it's very hard to determine, precisely, the outcome of this rough offset but it's fairly reasonable to expect the three factors, mentioned above, to give, from a few tenths of improvement, to up to 1.5s on top of the compensation for the higher drag.

It has been said that the expectation is for the cars to be around 5 seconds faster, per lap. Whatever the improvement will actually be, what's clear is that it will predominantly come from the higher cornering speeds that the higher grip will allow, unless major gains are made on the PUs.

On a track like Barcelona, the previous generation of cars spent around 26s hard cornering(that is, when the maximum lateral force is being required from the tyres. On Barcelona, that time is quite evenly split between low, medium and high speed corners), during a qualifying lap. If we optimistically expect the better braking+higher speed exiting corners+increase in power to improve the lap time by 1.5s, then, an additional 3.5s improvement must come from pure cornering, in order to live up to the 5s prediction.

That means the 2017 cars would need to spend 22.5s hard cornering, on a flying lap at Barcelona, and that would require an increase, on the average cornering speed, in the order of 15.5%. Now, for travelling a given corner with 15.5% higher velocity, it's necessary to increase the vehicle's lateral force by the square of such increase in speed, that is, the former lateral force times 1.1552, which means around 33% higher lateral force would be required for such an increase in cornering speed.

And here's why I'm not so sure that the expected 5s improvement will be possible. According to Brembo, the peak braking force will rise by 25% and, obviously, that peak happens at top speed when downforce is at it's maximum. As the speed decreases, so does the dowforce and more and more the car's weight accounts for the total vertical load, acting upon the tyres, and the higher grip will rely on, almost solely, the higher friction coefficient of the wider tyres.

By my experience, wider tyres relatively increases the lateral force more so than it does the longitudinal one and the peak cornering force could rise, maybe, by around 35%. But that would be at top speed and even on the usual high speed corners of the F1 calendar, where the speeds are typically between 200 and 260kmh, the increase on the lateral force, extrapolated from Brembo's claim, would already be insufficient for an improvement of 3.5s, never mind on the slower corners where the augmented grip will come mostly from the tyres, thus making the increase on the average cornering speed far less pronounced.

Obviously, there is a factor of track dependency involved. On tracks where the cars spend most of time cornering at low speed, the improvement will tend to be lower.

If the cars, somehow, do manage to improve 3.5s on cornering alone, at Barcelona, then that will mean they will achieve the target of 15.5% increase on the average cornering speed and, obviously, on the high speed corners such increase will be greater, perhaps approaching 24%, the necessary to make the 2017 cars take Campsa(Barcelona's T9) at the same speed as the 2006 Renault or the 2010 Red Bull.were able to, on their pole laps.

I 'm really looking forward to see what indications the first 4 days of testing will bring.


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